Homework #1

[25/02/26]

Before I begin - I have absolutely zero relationship to the content providers. This isn’t an affiliate push; I’m not a Macro Hive subscriber and I do not know the interviewee, Alex! I’ve just bought the book myself… full price :).

Quite a few subscribers have reached out independently to ask for any recommended reading on macro trading more broadly. Outside of the ‘big 5’ markets books or Hollywood film, it can be tricky to source and a minefield of unqualified tuition. As pledged in the bio, if I read or learn something along my journey, I’ll share it. This is one of those moments.

Last night, a friend recommended I listen to the below podcast (Apple & Spotify links to follow). Five minutes into the podcast, I paused it to buy the book. This is abnormal behaviour for me. I own just three trading books in hard copy, despite reading as much as I can online. With zero prior knowledge of interviewee Alex, nor any desire to fact-check the introduction or dig deeper, it was the chapter titles that were précised in the interview that struck a nerve. The pillars of macro trading. I try to both think and present my own thinking in blog form in a similar way, yet am far less qualified/successful than Alex. The first few principles referenced (no spoilers) were ‘swimming with the tide (trend or carry)’, ‘getting chopped up’, ‘stop usage’, ‘portfolio paralysis’, ‘failing to make money when you have the correct view’, ‘risk of ruin’ and ‘the psychology of FX option usage’.

View affirmation/correlation, nor the lion’s share of the subject matter re AI and lower rates in the US were the main point of interest for me. In fact, I only listened to the podcast because of trust in the person recommending it to me. It was, in entirety, the structuring of his thinking and his personal opinion of the main pillars of trading psychology and the difficulties faced when pushing yourself to be uncomfortable in your risk taking - that I already know from my personal experience - are absolutely spot-on. I found myself needing to know what else he believed to be crucial learnings of his investing career. Genuinely wanting the knowledge and requiring confirmation that I had also experienced these opinions.

I find his stance to be refreshingly direct and pragmatic. His view on how to manage his own psychological biases and those within the housing infrastructures of the industry, from own-account to macro pod, are in my opinion correct. I think you only get these specific opinions by learning the hard way. There’s immense value in that.

Please enjoy at your leisure, whilst we await a tradeable USD theme or clear break in equities!

Ep. 346: Alex Gurevich on US R… - Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal Hafeez - Apple Podcasts
Ep. 346: Alex Gurevich on US Return to Zero Rates, AI Productivity, and Managing Portfolio Paralysis - Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal Hafeez | Podcast on Spotify