VERY small ‘rebasement’ basket

[15/01/2026]

As per my previous post, I don’t see many high conviction setups in G10/EM FX at the moment. I want to get something on the board now that the year-beginning dust is settling, but the only view I am happy putting on knowing there is asymmetry existing (wall street forecasts vs geopolitical risks and leverage risks) is in the debasement trade extending (with crypto too, now) in the face of potential escalation and/or IEEPA judgement.
I don’t really like putting trades like this on with no clear S/L level, so the balance is sizing (this one is VERY small), room and diversification. I think a basket of XAGUSD (up 22% in the first two weeks of the year and with some very concerning high-volume price action on APAC profit-taking in both precious/industrial metals together overnight) and the S&P is a good high/low beta blend.

Trade expressions of choice: (NOTE this is a position in 50% normal size (just 1% of Available Capital) AND split across two expressions, i.e. $5k risked on each idea).
Sell XAGUSD 91.25 with a 100.50 S/L (10% higher). TP YTD low 70.00.
Sell ESA (ESH6 Mar26) 6990 with a 7200 S/L (3% higher). TP 6500 Nov low.