Preparation

[13/01/2026]

I haven’t deployed any risk for almost a month/over the holiday period, as outside of looking to enter the consensus AUDUSD trade at some point and looking to fade a larger move lower in EURCHF as per the previous analysis, I don’t have a strong view. It’s hard to chase ZAR or SEK at these levels. I have read through all major investment bank 2026 outlooks and find the S&P and metals (debasement) consensus a little bit concerning, so am being patient with levels as I monitor this first batch of Tier1 US data and the geopolitical escalation. I’d also like to see US rates break to catalyse a theme, as the trend lower in FX vol from last summer was supported by the US FI coiling. This year, I feel like I would rather miss the first portion of a move, preferring see a multi-faceted signal before engaging, in the hope that we see price action akin to Apr-Jun last year.
One exercise I do each year as the market sprints off the start line is to note down the minor/major hierarchical support levels in each CCY pair.
This year’s is below. The method, which I find useful, is to zoom out and simplify, identifying any longer-term trendlines to be aware of, in a bid to provide a framework for longer-term risk taking and options strikes/targets. I like to keep this table updated, alongside my positioning matrix, which I update weekly in the carrousel above. This enables me to see if there is a concerted break (i.e. in the USD through multiple key levels) or if a more idiosyncratic rank-break in a CCY warrants a fading interest.